Betfair trading – Low risk Tennis trade explained in depth

so did some videos last week on trading
tennis on Betfair and specifically at the Australian Open and I talked about
the Grand Slam tournament and how you get uncompetitive matches in the early
rounds and how you can trade them and we had a perfect example of this yesterday
and that’s what I’m going to talk about in this video please like and comment on
the video below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more
of them in the future if you’re interested in learning to trade
successfully in sports then why not visit the better angel Academy where we
have more detailed videos so as I’ve mentioned before you know you get this
pyramid structure with the two top seeds aiming to meet in the final at a Grand
Slam and therefore you get some really weird matches in the early rounds where
players are going off for very very short answer and yesterday we had
dimitrov and McDonald you probably know the former name and not the latter and
it was a very unbalanced uncompetitive match so dimitrov was priced at 103 104
and of course that determines that he should win that match very easily most
of the time and typically he does and in fact if you look over tennis matches
over a long period of time you tend to find that that is pretty much the case
the markets pretty efficient and somebody going off odds of two will win
fifty percent of the time and so on but when you’re trading you’re not that
concerned with that you’re not seeking value now there are trades that you can
do that exploit the creation of value from a betting perspective and turn it
into more money in fire trading but typically that’s not what you’re doing
on trading and you’re just looking for a window of opportunity and a relatively
sensible risk to produce a good payoff and that’s pretty much what we had on
the Dimitrov match now the setup for the match itself was that I’m not sure if
these two have ever played before but they’re the typical setup that I’m
looking for is matches where players haven’t played before and you get seeds
it’s opposing ends of the scale and de métro proceeded thirds and
McDonald wasn’t seeded at all now if you’re a player coming into a tournament
and you’ve you know you’re relatively new on the scene you haven’t played some
of these players they have no idea how you’re going to play so that creates an
opportunity for you now obviously the player on the other
side is pretty skilled but nonetheless you may be at a stand a chance if you
just get a couple of lucky shot seem to get a couple of easy points with a
little bit of luck and then suddenly you’ve got the potential to break serve
now over a very very long period of time what you tend to find is that the more
the match wears on then the even if the skill gap was only one or two percent
between players that tends to play out very much on the favour of the more
skilled player I’ve done some research and analysis on that if you’re
interested in that stuff comment below and I’ll post it up but the longer a
match goes on and the you know even with a tiny skill gap because there are so
many points played within a tennis match that tends to bear true so that’s why
the markets efficient in terms of pricing and why you get those extreme
odds simply because typically that is the correct price that they should be
they will win the match very frequently and at 103 Dimitrov was pretty much
guaranteed to win that match you got a sort of 97% chance of winning that match
and indeed he did so where was the opportunity from trading well McDonald
took the opportunity to put a lot of pressure on Dimitrov in the first set
which is typically what an outsider will do that’s their only chance you know
they may run out steam by the second set or be outgunned or outplayed without
thought by the more experienced player so he went for it in the first set and
he got to that break and then he was able to take that first set so if you
look at the odds of dimitrov they started at 103 and then the price
started to head out from there and then Dimitrov got himself together and he
managed to win the next set so the odds came back in again and then and this
this is the surprising bit McDonald’s it went on and got another sense of the
price went all the way back I go so at that point with with it with Dimitrov
one two and going into the fourth set he’s got
in that fourth set to stay in the tournament and being the third seed he’s
got a fair chance this year of you know getting into the latter stages winning a
lot of money and perhaps getting his first Grand Slam so um he had to win
that fourth set and that’s exactly what he did and then we go into the final set
and it was pretty close all the way through that final set and you can see
the odds wiggling up and down as you know that the chance of a tight break he
goes to one side to a tiebreaker ever ever break of serve goes to one side and
then to the other so you can see it swinging back to the boards and then
dimitrov finally goes on to win the match but our odds of 103 you’re looking
at laying dimitrov with a thousand pound for a liability of only thirty pound and
if you look at the price at which he drifted out to you can see that there
was significant amounts of movement so if my memory serves me correctly I think
MacDonald never traded below odds on I think he went down to that two point one
was probably the lowest that he traded that when he was in the ascendancy again
that’s a reflection of the experience and skill of Dimitrov but as a
consequence you can flip that Randall say and you can say that Dimitrov almost
reach odds of to himself so have a liability thirty pound with a thousand
pound and you could have traded out nearly at odds of two so you would have
gained the best part of a thousand panel in that particular trade so that’s where
you can look at it from a training perspective because you’re saying you
know if I make 500 on this trade and my risk is thirty or maybe if I probably
needs a way to parent and paraphrase this is if I made 300 pounds was my exit
point on this trade and I’ve got a risk of thirty more than one in ten times I
need to be able to find this trade so in a match at 103 when you’ve watched the
first couple of games do you think you will be able to find the player that is
unlikely to close out his first set I think if you watch the match or we do a
little bit of research and you can carefully pick and choose your targets I
think that’s perfectly possible now even if you can’t do that and the maths is
perfect then you’re going to break even at worst anyway but that’s is that in a
so really sums up exactly what you’re attempting to do if you use something at
all like tennis trader what you can do is you can frame that opportunity you
can say well if he’s a breakdown here if it’s a breakdown there and if it looks
like it’s going to be broken here and there are your natural exit points so
you would lay at 103 you’d say here are the exit points that I’m looking for and
then the amount of profit that you can gain against that potential initial
liability assuming you’re not going to trade out you may want to trade out for
a smaller loss is what presents the opportunity so if the payoff is 10 to 1
then you’re saying can I find these opportunities more than 10 times to be
able to make a profit every series of a number of matches are over this
particular tournament however this was a good example of it because you saw they
move from very very low wards and much further out but what what you’ll notice
is that when you’re looking at tennis the the odds may be efficient but it’s
you’re not interested in that from a trading perspective or interested in the
path that they take on their way to completion so dimitrov went from 103 to
101 but he just happened to go all the way out so 1.9 and then he came all the
way back in again and then all the way out again and then all the way back in
and then in that last set where is really tight you can see the odds flying
around all over the place and those little gaps there and those big moves of
where the opportunity presents itself because you know if you draw a line from
103 to 101 you’re talking about 3 takes you to not talking about much profit but
when you’re trading you’re not looking at that really you’re looking at how
volatile each one of those individual matches is and all of the paths that
could follow between that point here and the end point within the match itself
and that’s why we’re design tennis training because you can use things like
the game matrix and the set matrix to actually plot a path through an
individual game to tell you what the price is going to be at one particular
point and that therefore gives you natural entry and exit points but it
also summarizes up the trade pretty well you know do you trade out some Dimitrov
and after he’s broken or do you wait until the end of the set and and trade
out there because of your payoff will be absolutely massive but of course if
that’s going to occur much less frequently so you have to make a
decision when you’re trading in any sport but particularly in tennis is are
you going to trade from break to break are you going to trade from going to go
are you gonna trade from set set and you know you can work out exactly what
strategies there those are some of the decisions that you make when you go into
trade the worst thing that you can do is go into a trade and not make any
decisions at all or no way or natural entry and exit points are because then
you’ll never spot it or when you’re in a trade emotion takes over and you’ll end
up running it too long or not cutting it when you should do appropriately and but
essentially it’s you know that’s a good example of you know slightly rarer trade
but one that has a definable payoff and with very very low risk because you’re
saying put a thousand pound into the market my maximum risk is I’m gonna lose
thirty quid I may actually even lose less than that and here’s my potential
payoff on a powerful curse because of the following results and I guarantee
you over the course of the cornermen you’re gonna have in fact there were
more overnight you’re going to have more situations where a player starts at low
odds and doesn’t go on to win or at least follows a meandering path to the
win and essentially that is where the opportunity lays within tennis is not
necessarily whether the odds are efficient at the start but basically the
path that they take to eventually win an action sometimes as doom and troth prove
yesterday even a short odds that path can be hugely meandering you

10 Replies to “Betfair trading – Low risk Tennis trade explained in depth”

  1. As you say it's all about finding value. The potential gain/loss vs the likelihood of the players creating the necessary situation.

    They need to be different enough for the outcome to be priced very low to mitigate risk, but even enough for the underdog to mount sufficient resistance to move the market enough in your favour to make the payoff cover the times it's a whitewash from start to finish.

  2. Tennis trader is excellent at showing how the score structure of tennis affects the odds, but I think you should mention that the odds it shows are not precise in the real World, it's there for rough indicative purposes, and it's excellent at that. Reality is messy/fuzzy, tennis players are human and there are many effects in tennis that are random or add additional factors to the maths. Just in case you predictably get someone coming on saying, 'tennis trader said it'd be 1.4 at 4*-2 and it was only 1.33, it's rubbish..' etc…which is probably 1.1 to happen. Enjoying the tennis videos Peter, thanks!

  3. Mid week low grade horseracing are hopeless to trade on.not much liquidity in the market. Never tried Tennis. When i hear people say they make £10 a race that is not possible trading does not work like that also nobody can predict for certain how a market is going to react,all there is are pointers to where the Market is going which is what your good at Peter but the average person trying to fathom that out, they will lose in the Long run. But that doesn't mean some people don't make money out of trading. You are a perefect example of that.I hve been gambling 50 years and i can't predict how the market will go.I nonly get it right 30 percent of the time.You are obviously mathmatically minded Mr webb which gives you an edge.all the best to you i hope you keep on being suvccessful well done

  4. Mcdonald won the fourth set 6-0, not Dimitrov as you stated…….but you got your mention in of tennis trader in so well done on that.

  5. Sounds like a great strategy! Gonna try this out with Wimbledon with stakes of only a few pounds. Let's see if it's profitable.

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