Betfair trading – Simple, profitable Tennis trade explained

if you’re interested in learning more
about best angel’ its tools and the opportunities they present then why not
visit Betty angel calm today and download a free trial so I would say I
would do a couple of tennis videos and stuff and I thought this particular if
you watch the other videos that I’ve done this particular trade should
interest you and in terms of the method and process I was looking for when I was
doing this trade so I was trading the Nadal the Ryan age match today I was out
first thing this morning my daughter had to get her braces removed so I missed
the very very early part of the match but by the time I had arrived Nadal had
basically taken the first set fairly even for a little while and then blue
Nadal gets the break and takes the first set so I arrived at that point and have
a look at how the match is progressing now from that particular point what
happened was the second set I was going with serve and she generally is quite a
tight second set now when you look at things like this if you’re looking at
what a player is thinking if you go to sets to love down that’s honestly a long
way to come back but if you can get the second set then you’ll receive back to
square one and you know who knows what could happen from there so it’s quite a
big incentive to win that second set and you know the match is going from one
side to the other from one side to the other so when that’s occurring I’d quite
like to get involved later on and said because typically the incentive to go
for a break increases at that particular point within the set so when we’ve got
some notes here and we’ll put some graphics up on the screen but so as we
got into the latter part of the set what you can actually see on the set matrix
on tennis trader is if we actually looked at Anna doll serving he was at
135 and if he was if Ramage was serving first and assist so he was basically go
up to 43 Nadal would serve to get to go back to liberal scores so if it would be
three two three or four three four or five four five four five or and
and so forth and when you look at that this was presenting an opportunity
because the odd some adult having won the first set were quite low anyway so
if Nadal broke then it would be the odds would come down about 15%
but if ravaged broke then the odds would go out by about 30 points 30 percent in
this particular example so when you look at that you’re sort of thinking 15 be 30
mile each is serving first he’s going to be the one that has the opportunity to
probably break Ryan H has a big serve and if he can complete his service game
without too much hassle as we progress later and later in the phase probably
going to take more and more chances to try and get a break against Nadal so
with that particular set up you know that was something that was of interest
and then if we look at the game matrix you’ll see from the game matrix how that
would play out as the game actually progressed so basically if Nadal was
basically progressing and looking like he could actually win this his odds may
contract a little but if Ryan H actually got a point or two then you would
actually see the odds shift significantly in his favor because
especially towards the end of the set and especially at 5-4 when Ryan should
just serve down for the chance of Radnich winning that set was going to
improve so what do you think Ryan H was going to do is you’re going to sit down
play safe or was he going to try and get a couple of those little shots in and
you know try something a bit more adventurous in the hope of breaking the
down so yeah if you look at the game matrix
you’ll notice that the middle line is basically if the score is even during
the game the line below that is if Ryan H is a point up the line below that is
if he’s two points up and so on and so forth so you can get an idea of where
the odds would move so if it was love 40 would be 161 from 139 that those are the
odds that Nadal would drift he go from 139 to 160 and you can see even if he’s
disappointed head there’ll be a bit of a shift and if he’s two points ahead there
will be a decent shift and you know if you’ve got a chance to break it’ll be
fairly significant so the entry point naturally was to lay Nadal at that
particular point in the match when he’s serving run each has a chance to win the
set and run which is going to go through a couple of you know decent shots so we
got in the market at about stuff one one forty we got into the market and the
first point that occurred within that game went to run it so you can see the
odds shifted from our entry points to about 146 so that particular point you
could have cashed out some or all of your trade if you wanted to but of
course our play on this particular trade was really for Ryan itch to look like he
could potentially break Nadal and like I said in other videos before you don’t
have to wait for the break you can actually get out before them because if
the there’s two points for the receiver against serve then you’re see a
significant shift in the market anyway so anyhow Ryan each get the next point
as well I think if our memory serves me correctly from this morning that Nadal
double-faulted so all of a sudden the odds have shifted to 154 so you can see
we’re well into profit now and again you know you can take all or some of that
and as we progressed through we ended up with the score line of 1540 the Darwins
the next points run it wins the the point after that suddenly it’s 15:40 and
Ryan itch is one point away from winning the set and the dull is desperate to to
hold on to that game obviously and not lose the set so there are a number of
steps available loads of them on the internet you can even get them on the
ATP Tour website to show you how players perform under pressure or at break
points there’s some great stats out there in tennis tennis is full of them
and there’s a dramatic difference between one player and another in terms
of how they play when they reach that particular point I do actually have done
some fantastic work on how a player behaves at certain score lines I will
put up the video probably at some point I may because we’re coming to the end of
the Australian Open it may not be appropriate now but maybe I’ll do it on
the next grand-slam or at some other point but
it’s very insightful in terms of what I discovered but anyway back to this match
what actually happened then at 15:40 we can see on tennis trader and the game
matrix that it said the price would go to 161 and sure enough that’s what price
it reached within the actual market itself so at that point it’s worth us
cashing out because you know Ryan H could go on and win it but we know that
the odds aren’t going to move that much more and when he put in part or all of
your trades that makes for a sensible exit point because the chance of closing
out a game against service you know there’s still a chance that Nadal will
come back into the match of this particular point which was exactly what
he did he managed to pull it back to juice and eventually managed to win the
game by advantage so you know he was went out 1540 I think tennis scoring is
always deceptive but if you think about it it’s only you know 30 40 and then
juice it’s only 2 points and if you’re serving and you’ve got a half-decent
serve then you probably fancy your chances of pulling that off which is
exactly what the Dell did he brought the back max back juice and then if you look
at the ladder again you’ll see that his odds have gone all the way back down
it’s pretty much where they started but we’ve benefited from that little bit of
fluctuation that volatility that occurred at that particular point and
ended up with a decent zone if you look at the bet fair screenshot that you can
see here that shows you that that trade in lovely detail but the interesting
thing about this is that of course you could do it again and again as the match
progresses and but you’re obviously going to have to make that judgment as
the match progresses and when rhynocs started the third set you could see that
he was completely deflated and in fact Nadal was totally fired up if he’s
watching the dollar at the end of that match you could see it was really you
know up for that and it meant a huge amount for him and so you know by
watching a match you’ll be able to get a feel for how a player is performing and
Ramage took a a trainer timeout and you could just see that the energy was no
longer there and yeah he could have found a way back in but you could have
used some of that profit to exploit that but it looked fairly clear early in the
third so that really wasn’t going to happen
but okay you know so we did that trade that works out fine what would have
happened if it had gone the other way well you would have taken a loss because
what you’re saying here is you’re not saying that that is definitely going to
happen or whatever you’re just saying that you know there’s a chance that this
could happen at this point and if the market does happen the market is going
to reach this point which you can see on tennis trader you know it reached
exactly the point that we were looking for now which would have gone the other
way we would have lost a little bit so your balance your expectancy in this
type of trade is saying how many times do I get this right Rose is how many
times do I get it wrong and I may in the market at the right time for the right
reason but based upon previous videos that I thought that made just top and
tail a little bit of stuff for you on how I trade tennis you may have a
different way of trading you may have seen other people explain it differently
but that is how I trade it I’m looking for an opportunity to get in the match
at a particular point I’m looking for that rate or the break potential and my
payoff is basically getting that right more often than I get it wrong but also
in the right portion as well which is why I pick certain points in the match
where the downside if I get it wrong is fairly limited with the upside it’s
fairly decent but anyway there’s a summary of the trade that I did this
morning it’s very similar to the I did two of these or talked through two of
these trades on Monday when we had people in the office as well and all
you’re looking for is that that key points within the match where the risk
and reward looks about right and there’s an incentive for that situation to occur
but anyway I hope that gave you a bit more insight you

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