Forex Trading Forecast for EURGBP | Break Higher or Next Leg Lower?

– [Justin] Is this where the Euro breaks higher against the Pound? Or is the pair headed lower
within this descending channel? Hi everyone, my name is Justin Bennett with Daily Price Action
and in today’s video we’re gonna talk about the Euro/Pound. I’m gonna show you the
key levels I’m watching, as well as what a break higher or lower could mean for the pair. Let’s get started right now. (upbeat music) Before we get started, be sure to hit that subscribe button below and also click the bell
icon so you get notified every time I post these videos. Now for those of you who watched
Saturday’s forecast video, I talked about the Euro versus the Pound and I mentioned that a close above 8920 or bearish price action from 8920, could present an opportunity. In other words, I do think
that this could offer an opportunity for a breakout higher, up toward that 9015 level. So, notice that we have
some lows through this area, as well as some highs. So, 9015 would be exposed
if we get a daily close above this channel resistance and if the pair can get through that 9015, I think that 9090 is the
next area to keep an eye on. So, look how well defined this
is on the daily timeframe. Now, on the other hand, if we were to get bearish price action from this 8920 area, so, if tomorrow’s session, let’s say today closes below this area and tomorrow forms a bearish
pin bar with a long upper wick, that would be indicative of selling pressure up in this region and it could push the pair lower, back toward that 8840 level,
and perhaps even 8760. Now, one thing to keep in mind here, is that, notice how today’s session is pressuring this level
without backing down. Okay, so this is a sign that buyers are willing to bid the pair higher and at the moment, I don’t see sellers coming in to push the pair lower. Now, that does not mean
that this will break higher, however, the more pressure
we see on this area, the more likely it is that we will see a higher Euro against the Pound. And again, that 9015 would
be exposed, followed by 9090. One other thing you can do, too, this pattern is actually being respected on the four hour chart. So, if I move into the four hour, notice how clean this is. So, back here, we had these two highs and you can notice how
today’s price action is testing that channel resistance and likewise, if I look
at this support level, notice again how clean this is. We have this lower wick, this lower wick and then look how the pair never closed below channel support. And this is when I talked
about it on the blog last week and I said that a retest of 8920 was ideal and that I didn’t want to sell the pair because it was sitting right
here on channel support. So, we did get that bounce
higher, as anticipated, and right now, again, we’re just waiting to see what happens at
this channel resistance. So, while you could play
this on the daily timeframe, there’s also an opportunity to wait for a four hour close above this level. Now, keep in mind, I use
New York close charts, so that means that every 24 hour session opens and closes at 5:00 p.m. eastern. So, I’ll go ahead and put
a link in the description if you want to get access to
the same charts that I use, to make sure that your candles are closing and opening at the same time as mine. So, notice, just as
I’m talking about this, notice how the Euro against the Pound, is starting to weaken a little bit, but again, as of right now, we don’t have bearish price action to tell us that the pair is moving lower and we also don’t have a close above that channel resistance
to re-expose that 9015 area. So, again, 9015 acted
as support back here, it then flipped to resistance, so that would be our first target following a close above channel resistance and if we were to get bearish
price action through here, that would re-expose the 8840 region. All in all, though, I will say this, that based on today’s
price action, this is, so far today, this is
a large bullish candle. And again, notice how, back here, we got this rejection
throughout this session, which hinted at selling pressure and so far, we don’t have that, so unless today’s session starts to weaken and close back in the
lower half of this candle, I would say that a break higher is likely. So, I’m not gonna rush out and sell this because I do think that,
based on today’s price action, there is a decent chance that we see a close above
this channel resistance. Now, if we do get that close, I would expect this 8920
area to become support. So, let’s say we get a close up here, I would expect a rotation
lower, into 8920, buyers to come in, bid the pair higher, and push prices toward 9015. Keep in mind, too, that this pair has been in an uptrend
for quite some time, so notice how we had this rally, where the pair was making
higher lows and higher highs, so there is a decent chance that this could be a corrective move. So, this is the impulsive
move and then a correction and then we would see another
impulsive move higher. Okay, so there’s a decent chance that that could play out as well, so just keep that in
mind if you are trying to sell the Euro against the Pound, because I do think that just
based on this longer term trend and today’s price action so far, that there is a chance we could get a close up above this 8920, retest as support, push to 9015 and we’ll have to see
what happens from there but break that and we
could see a run at 9090. So, as of right now, I
don’t see much to do here, except wait and see if we get that close above channel resistance and if we do, I’ll be looking to buy the pair for a move up to 9015, however, again, if we stay below 9015 on a daily closing basis and we get some form of
bearish price action, it could re-expose 8840. All right, so that’s how I’m
approaching this one for now. Just stay patient. Make sure whatever you do is in line with your trading rules. If you enjoyed this video,
give it a thumbs up. Leave your comment below and be sure to subscribe to my channel. See you next time. (upbeat music)

24 Replies to “Forex Trading Forecast for EURGBP | Break Higher or Next Leg Lower?”

  1. Hey Justin. Typical of you … great & comprehensive video. One question: How much importance/weight do give to current Brexit saga during your analysis?

  2. Hi Justin, what's your view after yesterdays candle closed back below channel support? Seems like selling pressure came in just above channel support.

  3. Excellent. 👍🏽
    Please I ask before to make a psychology video if you have time. I struggle to hold trades for long-term.

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