Forex Trading Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURGBP, GBPCAD (October 7 – 11, 2019)

– [Justin] Hi, everyone. Welcome to another forex trading forecast. My name is Justin Bennett
with Daily Price Action, and in today’s forex trading forecast, we’re gonna look at the
euro versus the US dollar. We’re also gonna look at the
pound versus the US dollar. As well as the Australian
dollar versus the US dollar. We’re gonna talk about
the euro versus the pound. As well as the pound
versus the Canadian dollar. You’re gonna wanna stay
tuned because I do think we have some great
opportunities this week, including the Australian dollar,
which could be on the move. So let’s get started right now. (upbeat music) Before we begin, be sure to hit
that subscribe button below. And also click the bell
icon so you get notified every time I post these videos. All right, starting with the euro-USD. This is one that we discussed last week. And what I mentioned
was that this 1.09 area was likely to attract buyers. And the reason for that,
if you’re new here, this is a descending channel
that dates back to 2018. So notice how we have
these two highs right here, as well as several lows, that make up the bottom of this channel. So notice how last week the euro bounced right from that channel support. This is the reason I mentioned in the last forex trading forecast that I did not wanna sell the
euro, because it was trading just above that channel support at 1.09. So for the week ahead, I think this level will continue to attract buyers. And we could get a rotation lower, now that the pair came
into that 1.0990 area that I also discussed in
last Saturday’s video. So this channel support down here could continue to act as
support for the week ahead. And as far as a bullish
breakout, in my opinion it’s going to take first a
close above this 1.0990 level. So it’s gonna take a
daily close above this. However, to really get the
attention of would-be buyers, the euro-USD is going to need to close above this descending channel resistance. So until this 1.10 area breaks
on a daily closing basis, I do think that the euro
could remain under pressure. But again, any rotation lower could once again find support
at that 2018 channel bottom. So right now that level could be as low as 1.0880, maybe 1.0860. But again, I do think that
downside is capped here as long as the euro-USD is trading just above that channel support area. So longer term, I’m still
bearish to the euro. But I do think that it’s
going to take a move higher before we get that next leg lower. And again, I don’t wanna sell the euro wallets down in this area, I would rather look for
a selling opportunity at higher levels once
we do get that breakout and a move higher. Because right now, again
the selling down here is unfavorable in my opinion, because the downside is gonna be capped as long as we’re above that level. And I do think that this could offer an opportunity both ways. So in other words, a break of this descending channel resistance could offer a long up to 1.1070, with a break there exposing 1.12. And at the same time, if we
were to get bearish price action at either of these areas on the way up, it could offer a selling
opportunity for a move back down because again, the longer-term trend here is still very bearish. And lastly, I do wanna
point out that if we were to get a rotation lower
this week into 1.0850, all right, so if the euro-USD sells off from 1.0990 this week and rotates lower into this descending channel support. And let’s say we get an
intraday spike down here into 1.0850, I do think
there’s a good chance that we could see some
significant buying pressure in this region. So look back to 2017 to see
why 1.0850 is significant. But if we do get a retest of this area, I think it’s going to
attract a lot of buyers, and could also give us that opportunity for a move higher into
this resistance area that could then trigger the breakout. So I guess what I’m saying is, it could take another move lower before we get that break
of the resistance area. Next up, we have the British
pound versus the US dollar. And notice how this thing bounced right from the support area
we talked about last week. So remember that I drew
out this ascending channel in the last forex trading forecast, and I said that this 1.2240 area could attract buyers if tested. So I said if we get an
intraday spike below 1.2290 into that 1.2240 area, we
could see buyers come in and prop up the pair. So notice exactly what happened. So from here, again, it’s going to take a daily close above 1.2380. So notice this level right here, it’s gonna take a daily
close above this, this week, in order to extend this relief rally higher up into that
1.2570 resistance area. But here’s the thing,
I’m not fully convinced that the pound is going
to rally this week. And the reason for that is look at how the price action last week hovered just above this confluence of support, but never actually managed
to make much headway. So buyers had a hard time here at 1.2380. And this type of price
action right through here is what I often call heavy price action. So what that means is that
every time buyers come in and try to prop this thing up, sellers are coming in
and pushing it lower. And that can often signal a breakdown. So again, until buyers
can get above 1.2380, I think you have to be really careful here if you’re trying to buy the British pound. That said, it’s still going
to take, in my opinion, a daily close below this
confluence of support. So right around 1.2290. Okay, it’s gonna take a
daily close below that area in order to turn the pound
versus the US dollar lower and expose that 1.2170 area. So until we get a daily
close below this area, then I do think you have
to respect the potential at least for another push higher. Alright, so a daily close below this area would expose 1.2170, while
a daily close above 1.2380 would extend this relief rally back toward those recent highs around
that 1.2570 resistance area. And again, just like the euro-USD, this thing is in a longer-term downtrend. So keep that in mind if
you’re trying to buy the pound because for all we know, this
could be just a correction. Alright, so this relief rally could just be a correction within
this longer-term downtrend. So if we do see a break below
this confluence of support, this ascending channel could
act almost as a bear flag and trigger the next leg lower, just like we saw back through here. Alright, so keep that in mind
if you’re trying to buy this, and recognize the fact that the pound has been trending lower
now for several months. In fact, it’s been trending
lower now for several years. So if we take a step
back and look at this, notice how we’ve had these
impulsive moves lower, followed by these corrections higher. Okay, so this could be
just another correction, just like we saw through here. And just like we saw through here. So if that’s the case, then
the pound may be limited to the upside, and could
also offer an opportunity in the weeks ahead for
that next leg lower. So just to recap, as
long as this 1.2290 area is intact as support, we have to respect the potential for a move higher. But 1.2380 is going to continue to attract sellers until we
see a daily close above it. Break below 1.2290 would expose 1.2170. A break above 1.2380 would expose 1.2570. Next up, we have the Australian
dollar versus the US dollar. And this is one I haven’t
talked about recently, simply because I haven’t
favored the price action. So notice how this
period, for about a month, the Australian dollar really went nowhere, it just chopped around within this range. And this is the type of price action that I tend to just stay away from because you’re gonna
get chopped up in this. There’s no momentum here,
buyers aren’t in control, sellers aren’t in control. Right here, we’re just
waiting for a favorable move. And I could almost say the same thing about this recent price
action through here. So again, buyers or sellers
are really just kind of trying to figure out where they
wanna take this thing. And this is when I like to stand aside. However, at last week’s price action did something interesting. So not only did the pair come back here and retest this descending
channel support, alright, so this is actually
a level that I mentioned back when the pair was trading within this ascending channel. So I wrote about the Australian
dollar right back here. And we were actually selling
this with a target of 0.6750. And notice to how the Australian
dollar versus the US dollar never actually closed
below that channel support. And it did the same thing last week where it bounced right
from channel support. Now, if we turn to the weekly timeframe, notice what happened. So that support area
triggered a bullish pin bar. So notice this is our bullish pin bar, right here from our key support level. So a pattern like this,
at least in my experience, tends to trigger a move higher. So if buyers can get behind
this bullish pin bar this week we could see a push up into 0.6800 and perhaps with a break
there, exposing 0.6880. Now, one level I would keep an eye on as far as support comes
in at these recent lows. So if we go back to the daily timeframe, notice how these lows
right through this area, all right, I would I would call this a must-hold support level,
right around 0.6740. So this is a must-hold level for buyers based on some of these
recent lows that we’ve seen. Alright, so a rotation lower into the 0.6730, perhaps
0.6740, area this week could offer a buying
opportunity up in a 0.6800, with a break there exposing 0.6880. Now, this 0.6880 area
is one of those where, if you notice back here,
it got really choppy. So the question then becomes
should this level go up here? Or should it go lower,
closer to these lows back in this region? And this is where I like to
use the weekly timeframe. Because notice how we
have this high right here, so these swing highs, but
then we have these lows. So if I draw another level
to include these weekly lows, we actually get an area between 0.6860 and 0.6880. So if we do get a push higher
this week or the week after, and we get that close above 0.6800 followed by a push up into this area, I would say anywhere
between 0.6860 and 0.6880, we could see sellers come in and try to push the
Australian dollar lower. But again, it’s all gonna
depend on what happens around that 0.6730 to 0.6740 support area in the week ahead. The euro’s trying to break
out against the pound. And in fact, given this terminal
pattern that we’ve seen, so this short-term ascending trend line along with this descending channel, the pair is gonna have
to make a decision here. And on Friday I wrote about this one, it looks as though the pair
closed above this channel top. However, one thing I wrote on Friday is that this 0.8920 level needs to break on a daily closing basis before we can call this a true breakout. Because I don’t wanna buy this right now while it’s below 0.8920,
simply because we can see how sellers have been coming
out to push the pair lower. So until we can get above 0.8920, I have to be at least a bit
skeptical about this breakout. So a close above 0.8920,
as I wrote on Friday, would expose this 0.9015 area. So notice how this thing acted as support and then it served as resistance with a close above that exposing 0.9090. So this is something we talked about in last week’s forex trading forecast. Notice these lows, as
well as several highs, back here in August. Now that’s the scenario
that could materialize if we get a daily close above 0.8920, followed by a retest
of the area as support and a push up into 0.9015. Now if the pair closes back
inside this channel this week, so if we see the euro weaken
against the pound this week and start to push lower into
this ascending trend line, that could be the signal
for the next leg lower. So again, daily close below this area could trigger the next leg lower within this descending channel. And a break lower, in my opinion, would first target at 0.8840, followed by at 0.8760 and then 0.8680. So a close below this
short-term ascending trend line would first hit 0.8840,
with a close below that exposing 0.8760 and then 0.8680. But it’s all gonna come
down to how the pair reacts following that Friday close
above the channel top. So again, I’m just gonna stand aside for the first 24 hours this week, perhaps even the first 48 hours, depending on what happens below 0.8920 and above this trend line. Alright, so I’m just gonna stand aside and see what happens here. And if we get a close above 0.8920, I’ll look for a long trade
up to 0.9015, perhaps 0.9090, while a close below this trend line could extend the pair down
toward 0.8760 followed by 0.8680. All right, I saved the pound
versus the Canadian dollar for last, and for good reason. Because this is one that we talked about in the last couple of
forex trading forecasts. And so far, technically speaking, the pound versus the Canadian dollar is playing out incredibly well. So I wrote about this
inverse head and shoulders several weeks ago, back when the pair was trading through this area and we got this 300 PIP
rally that played out great. It also stalled out right at 1.66, which was a resistance area
that I wrote about in that post. So since then the pair has
pulled back rather aggressively. And last week, I discussed
this 1.6250 support area. So this is where Friday closed. And I said that if buyers come out and support the pair around 1.6250, we could see a push back up into 1.6330. With a close above that
reexposing 1.6430, perhaps 1.6440. So look at how nicely this
thing has played out so far. So we did get a close up
above that 1.6330 level on this candle, the pair
rotated lower, retest 1.6330, it pushed higher on Thursday, but look at what happened into the close. So notice how the pair was not able to close above this level. So that was an indication
that we would likely see a retest of this 1.6330 level, and I pointed this out
in the members area. Notice how buyers then came in and pushed the pair up on Friday. But once again, this 1.6430/40 area is going to attract sellers this week. So until we did get a daily
close back above this area, all right, and a bounce from
it to return back to 1.66, I do think that the pound
versus the Canadian dollar could stand on some
pressure early this week. So if we see a daily
close up above 1.6340, so a close above this level, we could see a push back up into 1.66, with a break there exposing
the measured objective of this inverse head and
shoulders up around 1.68. Now, I also wrote about and discussed in last week’s forex trading forecast, this ascending channel. So notice how this ascending channel that extends from this swing low back here has so far played out really nicely. And again, notice how last week’s low bounced right from channel support. So as long as this channel is intact, I think we have to respect the potential for additional gains from the pound versus the Canadian dollar. But if we do see a close
below 1.6330 this week that would be a sign of
weakness, in my opinion, because it would reexpose
this support area, with a break below that
negating this pattern, this inverse head and shoulders, and also reexposing some of these lows back through August and September. So these two levels, at 1.6330 and perhaps around 1.6020, these are two must-hold levels for buyers. If we see these breakdown,
this pattern would be negated. And again, if we see a close above 1.6440, that would expose 1.66 and would also keep
this relief rally intact and expose that measured
objective up around 1.68. So either way, it’s gonna be interesting to see how this one plays out. And it’s all gonna come
down to what really happens within this range early this week. If you enjoyed this video, give it a thumbs up,
leave your comment below, and be sure to subscribe to my channel. See you next time.

36 Replies to “Forex Trading Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURGBP, GBPCAD (October 7 – 11, 2019)”

  1. Leave your comment below and be sure to subscribe to my channel: (and click the bell icon) to get notified every time I post a new Forex video! 🙂

  2. Excellent! These videos are very helpful, Justin. Thank you for all the time and effort you put into these. I have been accumulating longs in the AUDUSD at the 0.6700 level…we'll see what happens.

  3. Thanks for the professional analysis Justin. All very solid. I'm still a little biased to the downside on eg though. I see a flag on it which would need to break one way or the other.

  4. Another sterling and comprehensive analysis by the brother himself. And because of the sterling work & effort in teaching us Forex analysis, I now bestow upon you the title of "El Professori" [the professor]. Henceforth you are known as El Professori Justin Bennett.

  5. Dear Justin B you are a great person, I've been following you a long time ago and am fascinated by you, Go ahead we stay with you 🙂


  7. just a quick question what if there is a fake out ..for example gbpusd daily close below 1.22900 and then makes higher the following days.. how do you spot these fake out..thank you !

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