Forex Trading Forecast for GBPCAD | 600 Pip Target? 😲

– [Justin] Is the British
pound heading much higher against the Canadian dollar? What if I told you it
could move 600 pips higher from today’s price, as long
as this area holds at support? Hi, everyone. My name is Justin Bennett
with Daily Price Action, and in today’s video, we’re
gonna talk about the pound versus the Canadian dollar. We’re gonna talk about some key levels, as well as how high this thing could go, as long as support holds. Let’s get to it right now. (upbeat music) Before we get started with today’s video on the pound versus the Canadian dollar, be sure to hit that Subscribe button below and click the bell icon, so you get notified every
time I post these videos. So for those of you who saw
Saturday’s forecast video, this chart should look familiar, because I talked about
the pound versus the CAD, and I said that as long as
162.50 holds as support, that we could see the pair move higher, perhaps back to 64.30. I also said that as long as 162.50 holds on a daily closing basis,
which it has so far, that this inverse head
and shoulders pattern is still intact. So remember, I first wrote
about this on the blog back when the pair was
trading through this area. In fact, I even wrote about it right here on this candle right before we got this
massive 300 pip rally. And so far, the pair
is retesting that level as new support. So in some cases, you’ll get
an inverse head and shoulders that breaks out. Say this candle breaks out here, and then you get an immediate retest and then the move higher. However, in this case, it has taken the GBP/CAD about two weeks to move up to 166, rotate lower and come into this neckline, which is now serving as support. So again, this neckline of
the inverse head and shoulders was serving as resistance back through these highs. And notice how so far this week, it’s serving as support. Now, the key to a move higher, at least in my opinion, is whether or not the pair can close above these highs from earlier this week. So notice how these two highs
right here actually line up with a key level. All right, so if I draw
my horizontal level here, notice how we have several
lows all the way back here. We also have highs, and then this candle’s high right here as well as this week. So this area right around
163.30, maybe 163.35, needs to break on a daily closing basis. So if we see today’s candle right here, if we see it close about this 163.35 area, then I do think that could act as support and push the GBP/CAD up toward
that 164.30 resistance area. So notice that we have several highs, and then it acted as support following this 330 pip breakout. So how high could this thing go? So let’s talk about the upside
potential here for a second, and then I’ll get into what
might negate a bullish move from the pound versus the Canadian dollar. Okay, so first thing’s first, as I mentioned, I think a close today above 163.35 could push the pair higher up into 164.30, and if we
get a close above that level, then I do think we could see
the pair head back toward 166. So notice where, this is actually where the pair stalled out last time, and 166 was also a key
level we had our eye on following this break
from the neckline area. So I think 166 could be a target if the pair can get above 164.30, and also keep in mind that
the measured objective here. So the height of this pattern
is about 500 maybe 515 pips, if we measure higher
from this breakout point. So 500 pips higher gives us a target right up around 168. So 168 area up in this region. And notice how we have some
activity back here too. We have some lows and highs. So 168 is the measured objective for this inverse head
and shoulders pattern. Now that doesn’t mean that
the pair will reach this area. It doesn’t even mean that
the pair will reach 166 or even 164.30. However, those are the
targets I’m looking at as long as buyers can
get behind today’s rally. But there’s also another pattern at play, and for that we’re gonna
use the channel tool. Now, I don’t normally do this, however, you’re gonna notice in a second, once I draw this pattern, you’re gonna notice how accurate it is. So notice how I’ve drawn
from this upper wick as well as this lower wick, and I’m gonna point these out in a moment. Okay, so notice how we have this low, we have this high that
make up the upper level, and if I drag the support level down, we have this swing low as well as this swing low from today. Normally I wouldn’t draw
a channel in this fashion, where I’m using a swing low like this as the start of the pattern, but in this case, I mean,
notice how accurate this is. This is literally within a couple of pips on each of these highs and lows. So this right here between this neckline, okay so remember, this was the neckline. It was acting as resistance. It broke out on this candle, which means it’s now serving as support. We also have this
ascending channel support that intersect right around 162.30. And what that means is that even if today fails to hold above 163.30, so even if we get a rotation
lower into this 162.30 area, I still have to respect
the bullish potential from the pound against
the Canadian dollar, as long as this 162.30
confluence of support is intact. All right, so even if
we get a rotation lower, this is not to say that the
pair is going to move higher directly from where it is today, where it is right now. Because we could still
get a rotation lower into this confluence of support, and as long as this holds
on a daily closing basis, I have to respect the
potential for a move higher. Now, remember that 168
was the measured objective for this inverse head and shoulders. So again, inverse head
and shoulders pattern and 168 up here is the measured objective. However, now that we have
this ascending channel in front of us, it does
give me reason to think that if buyers can get behind this move, that we could see a move above 168. And the reason for that is notice what’s happened since the pair’s been inside this channel. So we had essentially this move down here to support. The pair rallied up to this level, which gave us this upper
level on the channel. It’s now come back to
retest channel support. So naturally, again if
buyers can get behind this, we could see the pound against the Canadian dollar move up into this 169.60 region toward the middle to maybe
last week of October. Now, of course, it’s not
gonna move in a straight line. So we could see the pair
close above 163.30 today, move up to retest 64.30, close above that, come back and retest, move up and retest 166, consolidate some, break that, move up. So you get the idea. It’s not gonna be in a straight line. We could see a lot of
troughs and consolidation. But I do think there is a potential for a move above 168, just based on this ascending channel. Okay, so right now though,
164.30 is resistance. 166 is resistance. The measured objective is up around 168 with a break there exposing 169.60. That’s all good and well, but as you know, there are no
guarantees in this business. So this next part is probably
the most important part of this video. And that is what could
negate the bullish outlook? All right, we know that
nothing is for sure, and as nice as this looks and as much as we’d wanna
buy this and get long and see a move of 600 pips or more, we also know that there are no guarantees. So if this 162.30 confluence of support that I mentioned, if that breaks down, so if the pound versus
the CAD comes down here and closes below that area, then in my opinion the
bullish outlook is negated. Okay, so it would cancel out all of this. And it would also likely
expose this low back here and perhaps even this year-to-date low. So the bottom line is that
162.30 needs to hold as support, in order for this bullish
potential to materialize. If we see a close, a daily close, remember that I use New York Close Charts, so that every 24-hour session opens and closes at 5 p.m. Eastern. So that means that the pair
needs to stay above 162.30 on a daily closing basis, meaning that 5 p.m. Eastern close, in order for this bullish
outlook to stay intact. Last but not least, I think it’s important to
keep the broader picture in mind as well, especially
when you’re position sizing, because the fact is, the pound against the
Canadian dollar has been in a downtrend for some time. So if I scale out or if I move out of here on the daily time frame, this thing has been trending lower for quite some time. So this may just be a correction within this broader impulsive downtrend. So even though we could
see the pound move higher against the Canadian dollar, this does not mean that the
pair is all of a sudden bullish over the long term. Short term I think we
could see a move higher, but longer term as of right now, this thing is still in a downtrend. And that’s important to keep in mind when you’re position sizing, because you don’t wanna go in with a full position size, at least I don’t wanna do that, in a market that is trending against me. So in this case, the
trend is not your friend. So it may be best to go ahead and scale in along the way. In other words, if the pound against the Canadian dollar
starts to break 163.30, starts to break 164.30, moving up to 166, these are all levels where you could potentially
scale in to a long position. So instead of risking two
or 3% right off the bat, why not risk a half a percent or 1% as this thing moves higher? That way if this thing
does crash back down, because remember, the trend
here is still bearish, if it does end up crashing and breaking through 162.50, you’re not in this thing
with a full position size. Okay, so your average
rate may not be as good if you scale in along the way, but you’re gonna save
yourself the headache if this bearish trend does take over again and negate this bullish potential. So just to summarize quickly, as long as 162.30 is intact as support on a daily closing basis, I favor a move higher from the pound against
the Canadian dollar. If 162.30 breaks, so if we
get a close below this level, it would negate the bullish outlook and re-expose some of these lows from August and September. If you enjoyed this video, give it a thumbs-up. Leave your comment below, and be sure to subscribe to my channel. See you next time.

22 Replies to “Forex Trading Forecast for GBPCAD | 600 Pip Target? 😲”

  1. What do you think about GBPCAD? Is it going higher or lower? Leave your comment or question below and I'll get back to you ASAP! 🙂

  2. 600 পিপ্স হোন্ডান লাগদো না,এমনেই মলে দিয়া বাশ।

  3. love it Justin !!!! i love the way you explain , I been learning since March different methods, really enjoy what your doing and draw out the charts keep up the good work !!

  4. Thanks for pointing everything out. The good AND bad. It was interesting also that the .382fib stopped it in it's tracks when it tried to rally a couple weeks ago. This has some work to do but it can certainly do 600+ as you say.

  5. Hey Bro!! Impressive analysis. Learning tons from your analysis. Thanks. Question: Generally speaking – does this mean when price rotates to retest the neckline and instead close below/above (daily close) neckline, the H&S pattern is negated?

  6. Thanks a ton coach! The way you analyse price action seems so logical and simple!! Hey as an extra confluencing factor, if that level holds, looks like price could be rotating from an inside bar 'fakey' set up too from a couole of days ago. I will surely hope to join you in the DPA soon bro! Thanks again Justin!!!

  7. great brother my mind is today range near about 50 pip up or down next day break up side, your tips is very nice GOD bless you

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