How to Survive the Bear Market? Veteran Trader Explains


I am a Bitcoin guy, I believe in the Bitcoin
narrative. I think 98 to 99 percent of the coins out
there today are going to eventually be worthless. There is a chance that we are going to bottom
in the low 3s and that’s why I want to have an ownership position here. This is a marathon. Trading is a marathon, it’s not a sprint. Peter Brandt is a veteran trader and technical
analyst with over 40-year experience in trading commodities. He is the author of several books on trading
including the best selling “Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader”. We reached out to Peter and asked him how
traders should behave in this seemingly never-ending crypto bear market. Oftentimes in trading, keeping your money
intact is the best thing you can do. And we’ve seen a tremendous amount of wealth
deteriorate in this bear market, in the coins and crypto markets and those who went on the
sidelines back in December-January, February and decided they’re going to sit on their
cash are far better off than the person that’s become an active trader and trying to be defensive
and jump from coin to coin. I don’t advise that. So capital preservation sometimes is really
the goal of a trader. It’s almost as if fiat is a dirty word, it’s
a disease within the crypto community. Sometimes fiat is the best place you can be
and we’ve seen that now in the last eleven months. Those holding fiat have been far better off
than those stubbornly deciding that Bitcoins are going to go to one hundred thousand dollars
so therefore I’ll sit or anything the market gives me. I’m a trader. I think it’s ludicrous to sit through 90 percent
declines in the market, especially when you have a market that’s so clearly advertised
its tops starting in December with Bitcoin. I think those who have become active in trading
will miss the big moonshot when it comes, because they’re gonna be so accustomed to
having to be in and out, looking at short-term indicators, to be an indicator driven trader,
to be looking at 1 hour chart, 6 hour charts, 3 hour charts that if and when Bitcoin really
then reemerges and goes back into a parabolic move, they’re going to be on the sidelines. I’m starting to become interested in being
a long-term buyer and holder of Bitcoin, but of Bitcoin. I have no time in my life for the other macro
caps and the old coins. I am a Bitcoin guy, I believe in the Bitcoin
narrative. I think 98 to 99 percent of the coins out
there today are going to eventually be worthless. And it seems like all the experts know that
their pet coin is not going to be one of them. Well, good luck with that one. I’m a technician, I look at charts. The interesting thing is the social media
world, it is filled with people who say ‘technical analysis doesn’t work in the crypto markets’. Au contraire. There are the absolute best-charting markets
that we have today. They are wonderfully compliant with classical
charting principles. And so I’m going to look at charts to give
me that indication. I’ve been calling for twenty nine hundred
Bitcoin for a very long period of time. And do we have a chance to bottom before that? Quite frankly I think that one of two scenarios
is likely, we won’t get to twenty nine hundred because it’s become a popular number. Three thousand has become a talked about number
and oftentimes when you have a market that everybody is saying ‘I can’t wait to buy
that three thousand’ you don’t get there. But I think if we can break down hard through
twenty nine hundred, I think Bitcoin can go back to twelve hundred. It’s been a classic decline, the decline has
been almost a perfect fractal so far to that decline that we saw. I’m looking at a chart here from 2014 into
early 2015, the big drop that we had back then from just under 12 hundred all the way
back toward the two hundred level. If you analyze that and you take that decline
apart, the Bitcoin market is almost an identical fractal to that bear market. And based on that fractal work we should be
in the final leg down the capitulation. The only concern I have is when I look on
social media. People have not become discouraged. People are just still committed to the long
side. And my experience is Bitcoin really is very
similar to any other market that I’ve dealt with that have had major bear trends. What happens is, as long as you have hope
and encouragement, you can’t bottom. Either we don’t get as low as people are willing
to buy it, either we stay above three thousand and have some sort of bottoming pattern here
and really put together the final part of the fractal or we will blow through these
buy orders and eventually blow these people out and really make the market discouraged
and basically give up on it. It’s impossible to catch the top price. Impossible to catch the bottom price. If I can have my average price somewhere within
15 percent of what becomes the bottom – I’m happy. I have no compulsion to catch the bottom but
I think that I’ve started buying and based on my plan I’ll continue to buy as low as
it goes. But what I’m really looking for are just some
real simple technical indicators. Your 14-week moving average, 15-week moving
average. It’s impossible for a market to have a major
advance without being confirmed by a simple moving average. Now, it could be an exponential moving average,
it could be all kinds of fancy types of moving averages. But I think simple moving average system is
going to be a very smart way to trade Bitcoin going forward because it is absolutely impossible
for Bitcoin to incur and experience a major advance in price without confirmation from
simple moving averages. I think to the bottom we could be within six
months, maybe even I would say within six months of the bottom there is a chance that
we are going to bottom in the low 3s and that’s why I want to have an ownership position here. It won’t bother me if it goes lower, I’ll
only increase my ownership position and so I have set aside my money in three blocks. I have three nest eggs of money that I’m using
to commit to the Bitcoin market. The third block of money is buying Bitcoin
on a scale down. I own it some already. Like I said, 8 percent of the total capital. I’ll buy more Bitcoin close to three thousand,
I’ll buy more Bitcoin at twenty-four hundred, I’ll buy more Bitcoin at twelve hundred if
it gets there. So that’s a third of the money. A third of the money I’m going to be moving
in and out of Bitcoin based on a simple moving average crossover system. So basic simple tactical approach to market
and a third of the money I’m going to employ based on what I would define as classical
charting principles, it’s the basic principles of reading a chart. The charts have been very reliable in seeing
that we are in a big bear market. And they were screaming short at the top. They were screaming short here a month or
so ago when the big decline started. But it’s too late to be a new trader and start
playing around with the short side. I don’t advise it. With 85% decline I’m advising people to make
a game plan, commit a sum of money that you can lose and start being willing to commit
to. Don’t be trading the altcoins, trade the
real deal, the legacy coin is Bitcoin. Don’t become conned into all of these other
little nonsense coins. This is a marathon. Trading is a marathon, it’s not a sprint. And so you don’t keep placing your bet jumping
from horse to horse based on who’s leading the race in any given furlough.

68 Replies to “How to Survive the Bear Market? Veteran Trader Explains”

  1. He hates hodlers? On the one hand he suggests bitcoin will moon. On the other he’s saying you’re screwed if you didn’t sell.. not sure you can have it both ways. Yes should have sold at +/- 15% of the top.. but what if you didn’t? As he says better to not trade. But you’ll need to wait..

  2. This man is probably experienced in looking at charts, but the ignorance and lack of knowledge in the field of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology is making him just another old fool.

  3. Dont diversify, put all ur eggs in one basket, only follow 14 weekly SMA.

    Damn mind blown, Peter u a wizard I'm buying Bitcoin.live membership right now.

  4. Some great advice in this video. While going to fiat a few months ago would have been a better call than hodling, I am personally not trying to play the market or capitalize on trends. I am simply trying to accumulate a nice bag for when bitcoin becomes stable in the years to come.

  5. I do disagree about not messing with altcoins. You should most definitely have altcoins be at least 10% of your holdings since they will be the ones to have the highest percentage growth. Which is why my altcoin bag has a good mix.

  6. I think this guy gave quite good info… exactly one year ago on the 16th Dec 2017 the crash started, i wonder if anything positive or negative will happen this year around this date…

  7. BTC isnt going to go parabolic.

    If you really believe in bitcoin and think we going back to the moon then well we got plenty of time to buy. It's not going back to 5k 10k in the same day lol.

  8. Bitcoin must go lower because there are still too many perma-bulls in the market. There will be no big rally left for bitcoin and it is further to go down. Why? The entire move above 1k last year was late dumb money that drove bitcoin in a parabolic termination move. The other exponential moves were thin floats while last year was highly speculative. That bubble will never re-inflate. I have been shorting bitcoin on every rally and expect the price to drop below the 1k breakout price. If you are willing to buy, I am willing to sell more to you. There will not be a bubble move again.

  9. He only highlights his ignorance re other blockchain alts and sounds like he's shilling btc. This video would have more authority and trust if he wasn't one eyed. There are some amazing alts. Working products that aren't going anywhere.

  10. Great advice, and I agree with your trading advice. However, not everyone is in their 70’s and has a much greater vision and time to create generational wealth from the select “altcoins” that will change the world. 🤟

  11. Move over dinosaur, this is Crypto, not American stock trading.. World wide ground breaking technology, thats set to blast the pants off old fossils like yourself. Nice try posting on YouTube your ten seconds of fame is over 👎 trying to give advise like your someone in the Crypto space pffff I think your better off holding fiat! Lol

  12. How to survive the bear market is to stay the hell out of the bear market. Is everybody new here, for Christ's sake?
    Buy silver and gold God's, and sleep well at night!

  13. Hi volume since the 6000k break. Not sure if this is the beginning of bottoming / capitulation or something really wrong due to the forks. Wonder what you guys think?

  14. All crypto is ultimately worthless. That is where they are all headed.
    The coffin is in the ground. All that is left to do is pile the dirt back in.

  15. Thank you Peter for your insight, it's such a relief to see an actual interview rather than just following you on Twitter

  16. Respect.. I agree with you about BTC is the king. This is why my portfolio will soon be 75% BTC and 25% ETH. No alts. BTC and ETH are the only ones I believe in long term

  17. Bitcoin is the past…alt coins is the future. Why trade something that is outdated by many years,,,,tech got expiration dates…gold and real estate does not.

  18. The problem with this kind of traders is they never make it BIG because they never commit fully…they will just be average rich if they ever become rich. You go all in or go home if you want to hit it big. Bitcoin is the past. And that is a fact. A fact the blind refuse to realize. Those who are too afraid of investing in alt coins wont get rich at all. Why even be in this game if you rish to lose all and if your lucky you can 1-3x your money on Bitcoin lol. If you pick the right altcoin you will 100x minimum.

  19. The guy may be an old trader but he certainly has no good grasp of the blockchain which many of the altcoins have taken advantage of. Certainly not all the alts will be around for a long time but some of them have very good use cases……

  20. from 2018 until now i have made greatly on crypto its because i no my own way i love crypto i do'nt know about you 2019 is the big year to earn bigger i still have $30k still invested success to all traders and also if you are still confuse feel free to ask for help i will you can contact me here whats app +18138241270

    [email protected]

  21. he said dont short the bottom should be around 3,000 – the bottom was 3,195.

    he said wait around 6 months to catch the long term break out- at 6.5 months later its at 12,390.

    yes hes old, he doesnt understand fundamentals of bitcoin, or any market for that matter. he is a CHARTIST, he has looked at price charts for thousands of markets for 50 years, he waits for patterns. listen to him, manage risk and you will make money.

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