In-depth: Global market wrap-up


time now for an in-depth look at the
market news this afternoon and for that I’m joined on the line by dr. yang
jun-sok professor of economics at the Catholic University of Korea
professor Jung thank you for coming on today now at a slightly different time
happy to be here well last week of course we saw the
worst week on Wall Street in a decade or more with the main indexes down 4% on
Friday similar declines in the days before that today Korean stocks got a
little better a little bump though after similarly rough few sessions what’s the
story in the global markets and here in Korea okay well I actually mentioned the
United States at a really bad month of February in the early february everybody
was really happy because the stock markets are heading toward historical
highs and then just ten days later we had unprecedented lows we had 52 we
closed and some of the markets international markets had been more or
less following the US market so if when the US market tanked the Japanese and
European markets and Korean markets as well attacked as well Korea Coast bill
and Co stock lost about eight point eight percent of their value last week
as you mentioned the things are going well for closed p and closed back today
and if you look at the US stock market futures the actual stock market has been
open yet but if you look at just the futures then over the weekend the price
has risen and that’s probably because over the weekend the Fed Chairman Powell
said that he’s ready to lower the interest rates if he believed that the
economy situation in the economy warranted it due to the coronavirus now
I’m not convinced that it’s the right time to lower the interest rate in the
United States but I think that willingness by Chairman Powell to lower
the interest rate has given new hopes to the stock market and will probably do
somewhat well in the US market today and Korean market unless you get some really
bad news between now and tomorrow morning we’ll follow and do a little bit
a bit better tomorrow as well but still I don’t think it’s healthy
for the stock market to be overly dependent on what the Fed is going to do
in the short term for the interest rate well now we have data showing South
Korea’s exports were up in February surprisingly perhaps despite the
coronavirus situation how did that happen and what stands out to you in
these numbers okay well if you look at the details that it’s not as happy and
use as it was interpreted asked if we look at the total amount of the February
exports that rose by 4.5 percent over the amount that we had last February
imports also rose by 1.4 percent so at least if you look at the total numbers
then you can interpret the numbers they’re saying that we are starting to
come out of the bottom but the problem is if you look compared to working days
of this February versus last year in February we have about 3.5 more day more
working days because well last year the Lunar New Year’s fell on February
whereas this year it fell on January also this year is the leap year so we
have one extra working day so if we look at experts per working day then it
actually fell by eleven point seven percent so a lot of government people
and the analysts are actually taking this as not so good news now things
reading the exports is semiconductor exports it rose by fifteen point four
percent and both the volume of exports and the prices went up but there is
concern that the reason that the semiconductor exports went up so quickly
is that the Chinese buyers and other international buyers of semiconductors
are worried that Korean manufacturers will not be able to produce
semiconductors if the coronavirus gets worse so they’re stocking up so that it
won’t build a bottleneck now if this is true then that means that we’re sort of
feeding off the demand for latter part of the year rather than through any new
demand so there’s a chance that even Kovach virus doesn’t spread because all
the buyers are stocking up on semiconductors semiconductor demand and
prices will actually fall in the latter part of the year but there is some good
news as well Korean exports to the United States and ASEAN went up and
machinery auto parts home electronics and wireless communication equipment
exports went up as well so it’s a bit of a mixed news but if you interpret the
numbers I’d say that sorry to say that bad news maybe slightly outweigh the
good news all right all very interesting points they’re a lot more complicated
than it might seem so but also lots to look at this week in terms of official
numbers some figures coming out on trade some on the incomes of South Korean
households last year what’s coming up this week okay well I should mention the
current account figures for the fourth quarter are coming out and we’ll likely
see a current account surplus because most of the current account surplus is
good trade and we know are we know what the good trade numbers were for January
and it will be positive but exports and imports are likely had likely to be
going down and then for the income figures well it closely tracks the GDP
growth figures so it’s about probably going to be somewhere around 2% but
maybe a bit higher because well the income figures the exchange rates and
Korean Won was strong last year and then another interesting expecially coming
out this week is consumer price index for February we’re seeing now that the
covert 19:00 virus is hitting the demand very hard and consumer price index for
February may show us exactly how much the covert virus is heading the demand
of our Korean goods within the domestic economy on the foreign side u.s. side we
have the unemployment rate and a trade account coming up the unemployment rate
will show whether the US growth trend is likely to continue for this year and
that’s important because the United States is practically the only economy
that was really growing strong dear as well as the trade accounts
because well if the trade deficit is shown to have worsened then President
Trump during his reelection campaign this year it’s probably going to hit
protectionist policies harder alright professor young we’ll be looking ahead
for those figures thank you so much for sharing your insights today thank you

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