Peter Webb – Bet Angel – Detailed Betfair trading analysis

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if you want notification of new videos as they’re released so I’d like to look
at this videos bit older but we’re gonna freeze frame it immediately here and
have a look now what we see here because there is an unusual pattern you can see
that you know there’s a bit of early activity in the market and then the
price seems to get stuck at 2.5 it’s not going above 2.5 for absolutely edges and
you can actually see this is quite clear because you can see little bumps below
the price level at 2.5 and there’s nothing above it basically whatever is
happening in this market the price just does not want to go above 2.5 now this
could be manipulation or it could be somebody using what they call an iceberg
order where there’s a big amount of money waiting to go in the market at a
certain price and every time somebody takes it it’s replenished so whether you
view this as manipulation or just somebody trying to get filled and into
the market then you know you can take either of those views but you can see
the net effect here and what you’re most interested in is that there is little or
no price movement here and this carries on for some time and then boom you get a
big order come through the market or relatively big in this terms and or the
money gets pulled at 2.5 and then the price starts to move so the true
direction of this market you can see is for a drift for the price to go up but
it was temporarily held back at 2.5 but the pulling of money and/or a large
order will very often sort of send that off in one direction and here you can
see that direction it’s very firmly up so we’ll restart the video now so that
we can see how the situation develops from here and you’ll actually find this
is a slightly actually this is actually a slightly older video but in just some
features that you see in the modern versions aren’t in here but nonetheless
most of what we’re discussing here is quite relevant in certainly the
scrolling and zooming and panning of charts is available in the advanced
charting area of all versions are burt angels since we introduced the advanced
charts but what I really want to do here is to focus you in on the price activity
that is occurring on the favorite here so we’ll have a look at the price
activity we will zoom it in a little bit and and get a better view on what we can
see is going on here so the area that I’m watching most intensity in this
markets is on the favourites and we’re looking at the amount of price activity
that we’re witnessing around odds of 3 now we’re also looking at the traded
range that’s next to it as well because we’re most interested and how the orders
are filling what influence that is having on the price and therefore if the
current price is being supported or whether it’ll be broken so you can see
at the moment there isn’t a great deal of activity going on for us at the
moment within this particular market but what we’re doing here is trying to
assess you know does the price really want to go back down towards 2 is there
some momentum up to 3 and if you’re looking at this at this particular
moment in time and thinking well I haven’t got a clue what’s going on I
then join the gang because you can see that there’s no activity for me in the
market at this particular moment in time I’m just looking at the market trying to
make an assessment and when you do this the assessment that you’re making isn’t
necessarily as narrow as well looking at here you’ll probably be looking at other
ladders you’ll be looking at the charts you’ll be trying to understand roughly
what’s going on within the market if you can see there’s a large order that just
appeared there at 3:00 and there’s reasonable amounts of money getting
matched odds of three so that gives us an
indication that maybe people do want or are happy to lay this odds of three or
above and that’s what you’re trying to work out you’re sort of looking at the
market and you’re sort of saying well what’s going on within this market and
where is the general direction within the market what are people generally
doing and how is that influencing what the price activity is here so you can
see it spend a bit of time going from threes down a bit but basically the
pressure is building or it feels like it’s building for a little bit of a push
higher but what we’re doing is we’re waiting for some sort of confirmation of
that we’re waiting to see some evidence and that people want to continue to
layer three and perhaps they’ll there’ll a higher odds but if you look at the
amount of money that’s accumulating in terms of the money that’s being matched
at 3:00 and 3:05 you can see in the right hand column on the ladder here
the amount of volume that’s there and that’s indicating to you that most of
the money is getting matched between 3:00 and 310 and that most of that is
beginning to accumulate above those levels and there’s very little that’s
going on below but you can see here there’s a slight shift in bias
temporarily between 3 and 310 so this is quite a critical moment within the
market is this going to push higher or is it gonna push low and you can see
immediately pushed higher and the volume started to rise again so the confidence
that the price is going to go up now is increasing because effectively what’s
happening is there’s a lot of money sat that’s three three or five so you can
see that there I’ve just brought up the chart to confirm that and you can see
that it’s being replenished regularly so this feels like and this may be a good
opportunity to lay somewhere around three we also really want to do the
second favor coming in and preferably other runners so we can see that’s
beginning to happen on the second favorite so this looks like a reasonable
setup for this particular trade so found the video for a little bits
here otherwise you’d have quite a few minutes of me trying to fill in while
I’m looking for the same confirmation of information but you can see here that
there’s been 38,000 match to 335 thousand match to 305 and tiny amounts
match to 298 so it sort of formed a base which you know it would take a bit of
effort to get through all you would assume it would do nothing’s impossible
of course but you can see that there’s a lot of people coming in and they’re
prepared to lay at 3 3 or 5 and other prices but from there so we’ve entered
the trade at 3:05 we couldn’t quite get in at 3 and then we’re just sort of
riding this position out as it starts to head up so this is the sort of thing
when you’re trading order flow that typically you’re looking for you’re
trying to make an assessment on is there momentum for the price to go in one
direction and the other is there support for that are we seeing other activity
elsewhere that is helping us confirm that that situation is in place and once
you’ve entered the trades then you have to consider where would be a reasonable
point at which to get out so you can see as we start heading up into this sort of
towards the 350 area you can see there’s been nothing matched in or around that
area but also you know we’re running out of time in this market so you have to
pitch your order somewhere close to the current price activity so if you watch
what I do here that I’ll be looking to close the trade outs you know somewhere
around this particular level I would think because this is a natural level at
which when you’ve got limited time you want to get match you want to get match
just ahead of the current price action there’s no point in putting it 10 15
ticks away because it’s not going to get matched to the amount of time that
you’ve got left so yeah we had a fairly sort of clear setup we were looking for
something to occur within that particular market and then we looked for
confirmation and in essence that’s typically how you would trade most
markets you’re looking for a theme overall that takes place within the
market then you’re looking for confirmation and that your judgment was
correct and from that point onwards you put your trade in and then you’re
looking to manage your position out at the best available price given
of time you’ve got left within the market you

9 Replies to “Peter Webb – Bet Angel – Detailed Betfair trading analysis”

  1. this is the first time I understand exactly what you are talking about in terms of market sentiment, price action and support. More of these please. I might just install betangel again

  2. Great explanation thanks.
    Any particular reason why you used an "old" race with older software when this happens everyday and you record all your trades ? 2nd question , because of there being no timeframing, that flatlining at 2.50 could have been hours ago with little volume rather than manipulation or an iceberg as it only took a couple of grand to move the market , couldn't it ?

  3. Studied this video again , looking for trading clues. Did the fact the 2nd fav drifted from ~ 4.00 out to ~10.00 not have any impact at all ? I imagine the 3rd , 4th and 5th favs prices must have collapsed to push the fav and 2nd fav out so much. Am i reading that correctly ?

  4. You have mentioned how the final trade figure usually ends up near the SP price. Is there a way you can view the SP on the ladder and use it as a guide when placing and executing trades?

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